Solar activity was at low levels within the last 24 hours. There were 27 sunspots with 5 active regions on the visible disk. There were no significant solar flares. There are two coronal holes one at the center of the visible disk and the other small one at the west limb. The solar wind speed steadily increased up to 597 km/s due to the central coronal hole. The strength of the southward IMF was 6.62 nT at its maximum. The minimum magnetopause standoff distance was 8 Re. The maximum Kp level was 3. The geomagnetic indices Dst varied between -10 and 16 nT, and AE was below 500 nT which indicate quiet conditions. The F10.7 radio flux was 106 sfu which is normal during the ascending phase of the solar cycle.
The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels in the following days. A glancing blow is on its way from an S-type CME from March 20. The CME had a 413 km/s speed according to NASA and is expected to arrive at Earth today in later hours. The southward component of the IMF might enhance yet any significant disturbance in the geomagnetic conditions is not expected. Solar wind speed is expected to decrease to nominal levels by March 25 due to the passage of the coronal hole and the glancing blow of the March 20 CME. ASSA flare model predicts the occurrence possibility of C, M, and X class flares as, 75%, 23%, and 4% respectively due to the present strong active regions 12975 and 12974.
Forecaster: Ezgi Gülay
MSc. Student
Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, ITU