UPPER ATMOSPHERE &
SPACE WEATHER LABORATORY
SPACE WEATHER NOWCAST AND FORECAST
Istanbul Technical University-Space Weather Forecast studies have recently started as a result of a collaborative initiative between NASA/Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center (NASA/CCMC/SWRC) and Upper Atmosphere and Space Weather Laboratory at the Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics.
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Our forecasters attended and were educated during the summer boot camps of Space Weather REDI (Research, Education, Development Initiative) held in different years at NASA/GSFC/CCMC/SWRC. For more information about the space weather boot camps click on this link: SW-REDI-Boot Camps.
During March, 2015, a space weather boot camp was also organized at the ITU, Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics with the participation of the students from the department of Aerospace Engineering and Meteorological Engineering (photos on the left). You can refer to the Gallery to have a look at the photos taken during the boot camp. A total of 22 students participated the program which was led by Dr. Yihua Zheng. There were hands-on exercises and a thorough introduction to space weather and its effects on the Near Earth Environment. Certificates were distributed to the students who completed the one week intense boot camp program.
UASWLab-SWIFT carries out the space weather forecasts and nowcasts mostly for the interest of the public; aiming to develop further for customer interest such as satellite operators, mobile network providers exc.
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Daily nowcasts and forecasts are provided during the week.
Nowcast parameters include the properties of the coronal holes, number of sunspots, active sunspot regions, the most intense solar flares detected in last 6 hours and 24 hours, solar wind speed (min, max) in 24 hours, IMF Bz direction and magnitude, minimum magnetopause standoff distance, 24 hour maximum in KP and AE indices, maximum and minimum in Dst index and the F10.7 flux.
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Our forecasts include flare probability from the ASSA model, the estimated properties of Earth directed CMEs (Source region, CME speed, expected time of arrival at Earth) and estimated KP levels.
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Alerts are issued if there is a Solar Energetic Particle event and if flare intensity reaches certain levels.
We use several resources for our nowcasts and forecasts such as
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ISWA: Integrated Space Weather Analysis, a product of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center/ Community Coordinated Modeling Center/ Space Weather Research Center
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SWPC: Space Weather Prediction Center, NOAA
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WDC, Kyoto: World Data Center, Kyoto
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Certified Forecasters in Our Lab:
Emine Ceren KalafatoÄŸlu Eyigüler (2012, 2014)
Ä°klim Gençtürk Akay (2016)
Bute Naz ErbaÅŸ (2016)
Ezgi Gülay (active space weather forecaster) (2018)