Solar activity was at quiet to moderate levels within the last 24 hours. Two flares were observed from two different active regions (12957, 12959). The first flare was a C3.0 class flare from the AR12957 which peaked at 09:42UT on March 2 and was followed by an S-type CME with a 441 km/s speed. Yet the CME was not Earth-directed. M2.0 class flare peaked at 17:39UT on March 2 from AR12958.
CME was observed from SOHO LASCO C2 at 15:04UT at the northwest limb. The CME had a speed of 472 km/s and it is expected to arrive at Earth on March 5 as a glancing blow.
The sunspot number decreased to 66 with 5 active regions. The only coronal hole is located at the northwest limb with extensions to the equator and southwest limb. The solar wind speed has been decreasing and measured 367 km/s at 12:07UT. The minimum magnetopause standoff distance was 9Re. The maximum Kp was 2. The geomagnetic indices Dst varied between -4 and 7 nT and AE was below 500 nT which indicate quiet geomagnetic conditions. The F10.7 solar flux unit is 110 sfu which has been increasing steadily as we are in the rising phase of the solar cycle.
The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with the exception of CH HSS arrival around March 4-5. The decreasing solar wind speed is expected to increase to 500 km/s levels with the arrival. CME erupted on March 3 is expected to arrive on March 5 as well yet no significant geomagnetic disturbances are expected. ASSA flare model predicts the occurrence possibility of C, M, and X class flares as, 58%, 10%, and 0% respectively due to decay in most of the active regions. Kp level is expected to be 4 at maximum for the following days.
Forecaster: Ezgi Gülay
MSc. Student
Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, ITU
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