Solar activity was at low levels within the last 24 hours. There were 89 sunspots on the visible disk with 10 active regions. Yet, there were no significant solar flares. Moreover, there are visible coronal holes. The solar wind speed decreased from 446 to 327 km/s. The strength of the southward interplanetary magnetic field was 5.6 nT at its maximum. The minimum magnetopause standoff distance was 10.5 Re. The geomagnetic indices Dst varied between -10 and 6nT and AE was below 500 nT which indicate quiet geomagnetic conditions. The F10.7 solar flux unit is 115 sfu which has been increasing steadily as we are in the rising phase of the solar cycle.
Solar activity is expected to remain at low to elevated levels in the following days. There are no expected HSS due to lack of coronal holes after a week with almost constant HSS. CME arrival is expected today in the following hours. This halo CME has been observed as a filament eruption on March 6th at 22.58UTC from LASCO C2 and the filament eruption can be seen in the northwest limb. Kp level is expected to increase up to 4 due to CME arrival.
ASSA flare model predicts the occurrence possibility of C, M, and X class flares as, 95%, 38%, and 2% respectively due to the present 10 active regions.
Forecaster: Ezgi Gülay
MSc. Student
Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, ITU
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