What Happened in January?
The first half of January was relatively quiet, yet the solar activity increased especially after the 18th of January. There were 4 M-class and 5 C-class solar flares in total. 3 of the M-class flares were observed with CMEs as well after the 14th of January. 54 CMEs were observed in total yet most of them were not Earth-directed including the 3 O-type CMEs, and only 2 of them were Earth-directed.
The M5.5 class flare that happened on the 14th of January observed with an Earth-directed O-type CME, yet it did not cause any IPS or geomagnetic storm.
Another Earth-directed O-type CME observed on 20th January at 06.12UTC caused solar energetic particle (SEP). The CME had 1426 km/s speed according to NASA CCMC. On the same day at 09.09UTC, a C-type CME was observed and it caused an IPS on the 24th of January.
There were 8 IPS in total and half of them were caused by to CH HSS. The others were caused mostly by C-type CMEs. The maximum Kp was 6 on the 14th and 19th of January caused by an HSS and CME respectively. The 2 radiation belt enhancements were both caused by CH HSS. Solar wind speed was mostly above 400 km/s with a maximum of 681 km/s on the 19th of January due to coronal holes.
Within the last 24 hours, the solar activity was at low levels. There are currently 85 sunspots on the visible disk. There were no significant solar flares. The clearly seen coronal hole is at the northwest limb near the equator and it seems there is another possible coronal hole at the northeast limb. The solar wind speed was at high levels varying between 428 and 542 km/s. The strength of the southward IMF was -9.2 nT at its maximum. The minimum magnetopause standoff distance was 8 Re. The maximum Kp indice was 3. The minimum Dst was -20 nT, and the maximum AE was less than 500 nT which indicates no geomagnetic disturbance. The F10.7 radio flux was 107 sfu which is normal towards the solar maximum.
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels in the following days with an increased solar wind speed due to CH near the equator. Geomagnetic disturbances might be expected due to the CME erupted on the 25th of January, yet no geomagnetic storm is expected. ASSA flare model predicts the occurrence possibility of C, M, and X class flares as, 77%, 25%, and 4% respectively due to the 5 active regions. Kp level is expected to be 4 at maximum for the following days.
Forecaster: Ezgi Gülay
MSc. Student
Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, ITU
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