Past Events
The solar activity was at very low levels since our last forecast on June 18. The Sun had remained as a spotless disk until new sunspots have emerged at the southwest limb near the edge on June 28. Yet once the region turned farside, the Sun returned to its spotless condition. Through that short period, the region did not produce any flares. 4 CMEs were observed on June 21, 22 and 24, yet none of them were Earth-directed. The greatest speed among these CMEs were 440 km/s and it was on June 21 at 06:24 UTC. Yet, it had no impact on Earth. The solar wind speed mostly varied between 250 and 400 km/s. It exceeded 400 km/s for only a couple of hours on June 27. Within whole period, the maximum Kp was 3 and it coincides with the increased solar wind speed period.
Within the last 24 hours the solar activity was at very low levels. The Sun remained as a spotless disk without any sunspot or active region. No significant flares or CMEs were observed. Two other small coronal holes are seen at the northeast limb addition to the ones on the poles. The solar wind speed varied between 320 and 367 km/s. The strength of southward IMF was 3.47 nT. The minimum magnetopause standoff distance was 10 Re. The maximum Kp was 1. Geomagnetic indices Dst and AE indicated quiet conditions. The F10.7 radio flux was 69 sfu which is normal during the solar minimum.
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels in the following days. No CME arrivals are expected. ASSA flare model predicts the occurrence possibility of C, M and X class flares as, 6%, 1% and 0% respectively. Solar wind speed is expected to increase slightly due to observed coronal hole between the center of the visible disk and south pole on June 27. A small increase in geomagnetic activity might be expected due to increased solar wind speed.
Forecaster: Ezgi Gülay
MSc. Student
Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, ITU
Supervisor: Dr. Emine Ceren Kalafatoğlu Eyigüler