Past Events
Solar activity remained at low levels since our last forecast on June 8. The two active regions AR2764 and AR2765 turned farside on June 13 and June 17 respectively. The visible disk has been spotless since yesterday due to the turning of AR2765. None of these active regions did not produce any significant flares. The strongest flares were the B-class flares on June 9. A prominence eruption has been observed at AR2765 at 18.28 UTC June 9, yet it did not cause any significant impacts. Three CMEs were observed through coronagraph imagery. The first one was on June 12 and the others were on June 14, yet none of them were Earth-directed and none of their speed were greater than 300 km/s. The solar wind speed increased up to 500 km/s during the coronal hole high speed stream on June 9. The geomagnetic conditions were also at nominal levels.
Within the last 24 hours, the solar activity was at very low levels. The visible disk was spotless. There were no sunspots and active regions. There were no significant flares. The only coronal holes are the ones at the North and South poles. The solar wind speed varied between 273 and 332 km/s. The strength of southward IMF was 5.46 nT at its maximum. The minimum magnetopause standoff distance was 8.5 Re. The maximum Kp in the last 24 hours was 2. The geomagnetic indices Dst and AE indicated quiet conditions. The F10.7 radio flux is 69 sfu which is normal during solar minimum.
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels in the following days. No CME arrivals are expected since none has observed through coronagraph imagery. Solar wind speed is expected to remain at normal levels due to lack of any central coronal holes. ASSA flare model predicts the occurrence possibility of C, M and X class flares as, 6%, 1% and 0% respectively.
Forecaster: Ezgi Gülay
MSc. Student
Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, ITU
Supervisor: Dr. Emine Ceren Kalafatoğlu Eyigüler