Past Events
Within the last week the solar activity was quiet levels. However, some new development have been observed. The source of the M-class flare observed last week at the NE limb turned to visible side. New sunspots which belong to the new solar cycle 25, emerged at this region and numbered as AR2764 on June 2 and ended the spotless period which lasted one month. On June 4, a new active region AR2765 turned from the far side at SE limb. Throughout the week 13 B-class flares were observed from mostly AR2765. One CME was observed on June 1, yet it was not Earth-directed and its speed was below 250 km/s. Solar wind speed was around 350 km/s since June 1 until today. The maximum Kp was 4 which was on June 7.
Within the last 24 hours, the solar activity was at low levels. There are two active regions on the visible disk, AR2764 on the NW limb and AR2765 on SE limb. There were two B-class flares both originated from AR2765. The first one was a B1.4 peaked at 20.47 UTC and the second one was a B6.4 peaked at 21.46 UTC both on June 7. There are two coronal holes which are located at the North and South poles. The solar wind speed started to increase from 300 km/s at around 06.00 UTC on June 7. The increase looks like stopped after its peak of 498.5 km/s at 07.56 UTC on June 8. The strength of southward IMF reached 9.35 nT. The minimum magnetopause standoff distance was 7 Re. The maximum Kp in the last 24 hours was 4. The geomagnetic indice Dst varied between -13 and 26 nT. AE indice was below 600 nT. The F10.7 radio flux is 73 sfu which is normal during solar minimum.
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels in the following days. The increase in the solar wind speed in expected to continue throughout the day, then return to the nominal conditions due to lack of any significant coronal holes. No CME arrivals are expected either. ASSA flare model predicts the occurrence possibility of C, M and X class flares as, 13%, 2% and 0% respectively.
Forecaster: Ezgi Gülay
MSc. Student
Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, ITU
Supervisor: Dr. Emine Ceren Kalafatoğlu Eyigüler