Past Events
Within the last week, the solar activity was at low levels. The visible disk was spotless. There were no sunspots or active regions. The two promising magnetically active regions which have spotted last week at the northeast limb, slowly fade away throughout the week and caused no flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed from the coronagraph imagery. The only significant event was the enhancement at the solar wind speed at May 20. The solar wind speed reached 417 km/s at its maximum and the source of this HSS was the two little central coronal holes. The geomagnetic activity indices indicated quite conditions. It has been 24 days since there were any sunspots on the visible disk. It looks like the first months of the new solar cycle presented itself as deep solar minimum.
Within the last 24 hours the solar activity was at very low levels. There no sunspots or active regions on the visible disk. Thus there were only A class flares. The coronal hole at the south pole extends as a thin line shape toward the center. The solar wind speed varied between 308 and 348 km/s. The magnitude of southward IMF was 6.36 nT at its maximum. The maximum Kp was 3 at around 18 UTC May 24, and the Dst and AE levels indicated a small disturbance in the geomagnetic field. The Dst reached -9 nT minimum and AE was below 1000 nT, which none of them reached their thresholds. The F10.7 radio flux was 69 sfu, which is normal during solar minimum.
The solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels in the following days. No CME arrivals are expected since none has spotted through coronagraph imagery. No significant flares are expected due to the lack of any sunspots and active regions. ASSA flare model predicts the occurrence possibility of C, M and X class flares as, 6%, 1% and 0% respectively.
Forecaster: Ezgi Gülay
MSc. Student
Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, ITU
Supervisor: Dr. Emine Ceren Kalafatoğlu Eyigüler