Past Events
Within the last two weeks, the solar activity was at very quiet levels. There have been no sunspots or active regions since May 1st. Thus there were no M and X level solar flares. Four CMEs with speeds less than 350 km/s were observed, however none of them were Earth-directed. The maximum Kp was 3. The solar wind speed fluctuated between 250 and 500 km/s until May 8, yet it has not even reached 400 km/s since then. The southward geomagnetic field strength has not reached 5 nT since May 11. A prominence spotted on the southeast limb at May 5, yet it had no impact.
Within the last 24 hours, the solar activity remained at very low levels. There were no sunspots or NOAA active regions on the visible disk, yet two new magnetically active regions at the northeast limb can be seen from the SDO imagery. There were no significant flares. There are two coronal holes at the south and north poles and the shape of the one on the south looks like expanding toward the equator. The solar wind speed varied between 285 and 319 km/s. The strength of the southward IMF component has not reached 3.16 nT. The minimum magnetopause crossing distance was 11 Re. The geomagnetic indice Dst was 6 at its minimum and AE was below 500 nT. The maximum Kp level was 1. The F10.7 radio flux was 70 sfu which is normal during solar minimum.
The solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels in the following days. The two new growing active regions on the northeast limb may cause activity but it is not likely to happen in a few days, it might take at least a week. No CME arrivals are expected since none observed through coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed might increase up to 400 km/s due to the southern coronal hole. ASSA flare model predicts the occurrence possibility of C, M and X class flares as, 6%, 1% and 0% respectively.
Forecaster: Ezgi Gülay
MSc. Student
Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, ITU
Supervisor: Dr. Emine Ceren Kalafatoğlu Eyigüler