Past Events
Within the last few weeks, solar activity was at low levels. Two relatively significant CMEs were observed on 20 and 21 of March, yet none of them were Earth-directed. A new sunspot group has been observed on the southeast limb of the visible disk on March 7 and it is believed to be belong to solar cycle 25 due to its polarity. This sunspot group has been named as AR2758 on the next day and it stayed on the visible disk until March 18. The maximum planetary Kp index was 3. The HSS started on March 17 has still been continuing and the solar wind speed has been barely below 400 km/s since then.
Within the last 24 hours, the solar activity was at very low levels. The sun was a clear disk without any sunspot groups, thus no flares were observed. While the coronal hole at the north pole is quite small, the one on the south is extending to lower latitudes, especially in the west limb. The other small coronal hole at the southeast limb possibly will be facing Earth in the following days. The solar wind speed fluctuated between 427 and 492 km/s. The maximum strength of southward IMF was 4.8 nT. The minimum magnetopause standoff distance was 9 Re which there were no magnetopause crossings. The minimum and maximum Dst data was -15 and 0 nT, which indicates that there was no geomagnetic storm. The AE was slightly greater than 500 nT in the last 24 hours. The F10.7 radio flux data was 70 sfu, which is normal during solar minimum.
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels in the following days. No flares are expected since there are no current active regions on the visible disk. No CME arrivals are expected. The ASSA model predicts the possibility of C, M and X flares as 6%, 1% and 0% respectively. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at values greater than 400 km/s due to the coronal holes at the southern hemisphere.
Forecaster: Ezgi Gülay
MSc. Student
Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, ITU
Supervisor: Dr. Emine Ceren Kalafatoğlu Eyigüler