Past Events
Within the last two weeks, solar activity remained at low levels. Eventhough several CME's were observed, only two of them had speeds greater than 400 km/s, yet none of them were Earth-directed. There were high speed streams caused by coronal holes and the greatest solar wind speed has been measured as 579 km/s on February 29. The Sun was a spotless disk without any sunspots and active region. Thus, no solar flares were observed. The maximum Kp was 5 on February 19. The increase in Kp was a result of CH HSS.
The solar activity remained at low levels within the last 24 hours. There were no sunspots and active regions on the visible disk. Thus there were no flares. The coronal hole at the South pole is significanlty larger than the one on North pole. The solar wind speed varied between 347 and 404 km/s. The greatest strength of southward IMF was measured 5.6 nT. The minimum magnetopause distance was 9 Re. The maximum Kp index was 3. The Dst index varied between -18 and 7 nT. The maximum AE index was slightly greater than 500. The F10.7 radio flux data was 70 sfu which is normal around solar minimum.
Solar activity is expected to remain at quite levels in the following days. No CME arrivals are expected since no Earth-directed CMEs were observed. A slight increase at solar wind speed is expected for the next week due to the small coronal hole on the east limb close to the center, but it is not expected to be greater than 450 km/s. ASSA model predicts the possibility of C, M and X flares are 9%, 1% and 0% respectively. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain at quiet conditions as well.
Forecaster: Ezgi Gülay
MSc. Student
Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, ITU
Supervisor: Dr. Emine Ceren Kalafatoğlu Eyigüler