Past Events
The solar activity was at very low levels within the last week. The solar disk remained spotless without the presence of any active region and sunspot. The solar wind parameters were at normal levels as well as the geomagnetic conditions. A faint CME was observed on December 3, yet is was slow and had no impact on Earth.
Within the last 24 hours the solar activity were at very low levels. The Sun was a spotless disk without any sunspot and active region. No flares and CMEs were observed. There are two coronal holes at the North and South poles, the one in the South pole is significantly bigger than the one on the North. The solar wind speed varied between 317 and 386 km/s. The southward IMF strength did not increased more than 5 nT. The minimum magnetopause standoff distance was 8, thus there were no magnetopause crossings. The maximum Kp index recorded as 2. The geomagnetic indices Dst and AE indicated quiet conditions with greater than -4 nT and less than 500 nT respectively. The F10.7 solar radio flux was 71 sfu which is normal at solar minimum.
The solar activity is expected to remain at normal levels in the following days. No CME arrivals are expected. No significant flares are expected since there are no active region or sunspot groups. ASSA model predicts the possibility of C, M and X class flares as 6%, 1% and none respectively. A small increase might be expected due to the coronal hole at the South poles but it is not expected to increase more than 450 km/s. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain at quiet conditions aswell.
Forecaster: Ezgi Gülay
Undergraduate Student
Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, ITU
Supervisor: Dr. Emine Ceren Kalafatoğlu Eyigüler