Past Events
In the past two weeks, the solar activity was at very low levels. Two CMEs were observed but none of them were Earth-directed. No significant flares were observed. From time to time the solar wind speed increased up to 652 km/s due to the coronal holes and caused five recorded HSS events. The planetary Kp index reached maximum of 4 on 22 Nov., thus no geomagnetic storms were observed. The GOES greater than 0.8 MeV electron flux remained below treshold, as well as the GOES P10 and P100 proton flux.
Within the last 24 hours, the solar activity remained at very low levels. There are no sunspots or active regions spotted on the visible disk. There are coronal holes on both North and South poles and the one on the South is bigger towards to the equator. No solar flares or CMEs were observed. The solar wind speed was at normal levels, varied between 319 and 373 km/s. The Southward IMF strength was 5 nT at the most. The minimum magnetopause standoff distance were 9 Re. The maximum planetary Kp index was 2. The geomagnetic indices Dst and AE showed quiet conditions by minimum -2 nT and less than 500 nT respectively. The F10.7 radio flux was 72 sfu which is normal during the solar minimum.
In the following days, no CME arrivals are expected. No significant flares are expected to due the lack of active regions and sunspots. The ASSA model predicts the flare possibilities as 6%, 1% and none for C, M and X class flares respectively. A small increase in the solar wind speed might be expected due to the coronal hole at the South limb but it would not reach HSS levels. The geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain at normal levels.
Forecaster: Ezgi Gülay
Undergraduate Student
Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, ITU
Supervisor: Dr. Emine Ceren Kalafatoğlu Eyigüler