Past Events
A slow Earth-directed CME observed at 25 October 2019 20:56 UTC by SOHO LASCO C2. The speed of the CME was 262 km/s. It arrived Earth in 4 days and caused an Interplanetary Shock at 29 October 2019 15:02 UTC. Other than the CME arrival, the solar wind speed increased up to 600 km/s from time to time due to the coronal holes. No geomagnetic storm or flares were observed.
Within the last 24 hours, the solar activity was at low levels. There are no active regions or sunspots on the visible disk. No solar flares were observed. Other than the ones on the South and North poles, there is one thick line shaped coronal hole starting from the center and ends at south pole on the east limb, yet it will face Earth in a few days. The solar wind speed is at normal levels with an average of 360 km/s. Although the southward and total IMF strengths are both reached 10 nT, but the southward component was mostly northward. Minimum magnetopause distance was 8 Re and the max Kp indice was 3. Dst and AE geomagnetic indices were at normal levels with minimum -21 nT and smaller than 1000 nT respectively. F10.7 radio flux were 70 sfu which has not exceeded 65 sfu in a long time, but still a normal value for solar minimum.
Due to the coronal hole on the south limb, solar wind speed might increase in the following days. There is a bright sparkle at the far east limb. Although it is not certain but a new active region might be forming, thus solar flare possibilities might increase in the next week. For now, the ASSA model predicts the flare possibilities as 6%, 1% and none for the C, M and X class flares respectively. Any CME arrivals are not expected. The geomagnetic conditions expected to be at normal levels.
Forecaster: Ezgi Gülay
Undergraduate Student
Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, ITU
Supervisor: Dr. Emine Ceren Kalafatoğlu Eyigüler