Past Events
Within the last week, the solar activity were at very low levels. There were not any active regions or sun spots, thus there were no flares other than the ones on the background levels. No CMEs were observed. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet. The solar wind speed were above 400 km/s most of the time due to the coronal hole at the South limb.
Within the last 24 hours, there were not any sunspots or active regions. No flares were seen other than A class background flares. The coronal hole which covers most of the Northwest limb caused solar wind speed to increase up to 667 km/s. While the coronal hole at the North pole remains, there is another coronal hole at the Southeast limb coming towards the center of the disc. There was a moderate geomagnetic storm which means Kp level reached 6. While the Dst decreased to -40 nT, AE indice increased more than 1500 nT. The magnetopause stand-off distance decreased to 7 Re. The Southward IMF strenght reached 11.6 nT. F10.7 radio flux remained at normal value, 66 sfu.
No CME arrival is expected since no CMEs were observed within the last few days. Due to the absence of any sunspot and active region, no flares are expected aswell. The solar wind speed is expected to increase or remain at this speed before it starts to decrease to the normal levels in the following days. Although, the other coronal hole at the Southeast limb might cause another increase in the solar wind speed. The Kp level is expected to remain at moderate levels and to decrease afterwards. The ASSA model predicted the possibility of C, M and X class flares as 6%, 1% and none respectively.
Forecaster: Ezgi Gülay
Undergraduate Student
Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, ITU
Supervisor: Dr. Emine Ceren Kalafatoğlu Eyigüler