Past Events
Within the last few weeks the solar activity was at very low levels. No major flares and Earth directed CMEs were observed. No major events occured other than coronal hole sourced high speed streams and one radiationbelt enhancement caused by HSS. There were no significant values above the tresholds in geomagnetic parameters.
Within the last 24 hours, no flares were observed. There were not any sunspots and active regions. There were significant coronal holes other than the ones on the North and South poles in the last 24 hours. They were on the northeast limb and on the region extending from the center of the disk to the south pole as a thick line shape which is directing the Earth. The maximum and minimum solar wind speed were 330 and 445 km/s respectively. The magnitude of the southward IMF component did reach 4.2 nT. Minimum magnetopause distance was 12 radius of Earth. The maximum Kp index was 2. Dst index value changed between -6 and 3 nT and AE index was lower than 1000 nT. F10.7 radio flux was 66 sfu which is normal at solar minimum as all the other parameters were.
The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels in the next few days. A possible increase in the solar wind speed can be seen due to the coronal holes facing the Earth, although it might not happen since the centered coronal hole has started to turn on the West limb. There were no Earth directed CMEs, thus no CME arrival is expected. No flares are expected since there are no active regions on the visible disk. The ASSA predicted the possibility of C class flares as 6%, M class flare as 1% and X class flares as none which is valid for this condition. Kp index is expected to be below treshold.
Forecaster: Ezgi Gülay
Undergraduate Student
Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, ITU
Supervisor: Dr. Emine Ceren Kalafatoğlu Eyigüler