Past Events
The solar activity were at low levels within the last week. There were major active regions on the visible disk. Thus no solar flares were observed. Also no significant CMEs were observed. There was a continuous high speed stream caused by the coronal hole at the equatorial zone faced to Earth. All the other parameters were at normal levels so no alerts were sent other than CH HSS.
Within the last 24 hours no solar flares were observed due to the absence of any active region. The sun was a clear disk without any sunspot. There is a coronal hole centered on the Sun which has been causing high speed stream, which has been slightly decreasing within the last 24 hours from around 545 km/s to 440 km/s. The southward magnetic field strength did reach 3.6 nT which causes no threat at the moment. The minimum magnetopause distance reached 7 Re but no magnetopause crossings were observed. The maximum Kp did not exceed 3. Dst and AE indices were at quiet levels. While Dst indice varied between -5 to 7 nT, AE did not reach 1000 nT. F10.7 radio flux was 67 sfu which is normal during solar minimum.
The solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels in the upcoming days. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed, thus no CME arrival is expected. No flares greater than B class is expected since there are any active regions. The ASSA predicted the possibility of C class flares as 6%, M class flare as 1% and X class flares as none. The estimated maximum Kp is predicted as 2.5. The solar wind speed is expected to be decreased to normal levels.
Forecaster: Ezgi Gülay
Undergraduate Student
Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, ITU
Supervisor: Dr. Emine Ceren Kalafatoğlu Eyigüler