Past Events
The solar activity was very low within the last few days. There were no CMEs observed in the coronagraphs, and no solar flares occured due to the lack of any active regions.
Within the last 24 hours, the Sun was spotless and there were no active regions. Thus there were no flares observed. No coronal holes were observed other than the ones were already present in the South and North poles. The solar wind speed has increased from 298 km/s to 412 km/s. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field turned to southward at around 03:00 UTC and it has been oscillating between the strengths of -8.2 to 9.2 nT. There were no radiation belt enhancements, thus the magnetopause distance decreased to 7 Re. The maximum Kp level was 3, which is considered as a quite condition. Dst indice varied between -14 and 26 nT. AE indice were below 1000 nT. The F10.7 radio flux was 67 sfu, which is normal during solar minimum.
The Sun was spotless within the last week but the signs of the occurence of a new active region was detected on the southeast limb. While the time this new active region will strong enough to create new flares, it will be on the back of the Sun. Probably in the next cycle it can produce some significant flares, if it survives. Thus, the ASSA predicted the possibility of C class flares as 6%, M class flare as 1% and X class flares as none. The estimated maximum Kp is predicted as 2.5. There were no Earth-directed CMEs in the last week. Thus no CME arrivals are expected. The solar activity is expected to be at low levels for the next few days.
Forecaster: Ezgi Gülay
Undergraduate Student
Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, ITU
Supervisor: Dr. Emine Ceren Kalafatoğlu Eyigüler