Past Events
In the last couple of days, there were significant geomagnetic activities. Yesterday, on May 14, Kp level reached 7. Thus strong geomagnetic storm conditions were reached in the morning and continued most of throughout the day. Also several Earth-directed CMEs were observed along B-Class flares.
Within the last 24 hours, solar wind parameters were at normal levels. No coronal holes were observed other than the ones in north and south poles. AR12740 and AR12741 were inactive. Thus no significant flares were observed. There were no magnetopause crossing in the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed were greater than 400 km/s for the last couple of days but today in decreased to normal levels. Southward magnetic field strength was northward and it varied between 5 and 10 nT. Ion density had some tendency to increase yet it is still at normal levels. Ion temperature has been increasing and dynamic pressure was at normal levels. Kp level reached to 7 but it returned to quiet conditions later on that day. Dst decreased to -43 nT before it returned to quiet levels. AE indice were at normal levels. F10.7 radio flux were 74 which is normal during solar minimum.
There were three significant Earth-directed CMEs in the last couple of days. The latest one observed by STEREO AHEAD C2, LASCO C2 and LASCO C3 on 2019-05-13 16:09UTC. Its speed is 594 km/s and it will hit directly hit Earth according to iSWA and WAS-ENLIL model. It is expected to hit Earth at 2019-05-16 19:15 UTC. Yet, the May 12 CME will hit on 2019-05-16 07:25 UTC. All of the solar wind parameters are expected to increase. Energetic particle tresholds may be reached. Additionally, possible moderate geomagnetic storm is expected due to CME arrivals and earlier HSS.
AR12471 has been inactive and will not be on disk in a couple of days, and AR12470 is inactive, so there is a slight chance for a flare.
Forecaster: Ezgi Gülay
Undergraduate Student
Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, ITU
Supervisor: Dr. Emine Ceren Kalafatoğlu Eyigüler