Withing the last week, there were 8 CME's but none of them were Earth-directed. However the CME observed on May 6 may have an impact on Earth and it is expected to arrive on May 11. The AR12740 seems like has been loosing its strength and AR12741 seems inactive. So solar activity is expected to remain at low levels. Only According to ASSA model gives a probability of 21% for C class and 5% for M class flare. No X class flare is expected.
Maximum Kp is predicted as 2.5 and it is expected to remain that low due to the decrease in strength of the IMF Bz fluctuations.
Forecaster: Ezgi Gülay
Undergraduate Student
Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, ITU
Supervisor: Dr. Emine Ceren Kalafatoğlu Eyigüler