Two CME's were observed on May 1st, but according to Stereo-A and SOHO observations, none of them were Earth-directed. The source location of both of the CME's were on the east side of the Sun. So no impact on Earth is expected. ASSA model gives 6% and 1% probability for C class and M-class flares, respectively. No X-class flares are expected.
Maximum Kp is predicted as 4.3. However, it is expected to decrease with the coming hours as southward Bz weakens.
Forecaster: Ezgi Gülay
Undergraduate Student
Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, ITU
Supervisor: Dr. Emine Ceren Kalafatoğlu Eyigüler