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Nowcast and Forecast for August 18, 2017


Solar activity (CMEs and flares) was at low levels today. There were no Earth directed CMEs.   The average values for solar wind density, velocity and temperature from 10 AM yesterday (17-08-2017) to 10 AM today (18-08-2017) are 12 #/cm^3, 550 km/s and 400000 K, respectively.  Kp index showed a max value of 5 which indicates minor geomagnetic storm activity according to NOAA geomagnetic storm scale. AE index had max values between 500 and 1000 nT today which indicates moderate substorm levels (WDC-Kyoto). These increments of geomagnetic indices are due to the HSS arrival yesterday at 08:00 UT.  ASSA model gives a probability of 64% for C and 19% for M level flares. X level flares are not expected.

Solar activity (CMEs and flares) was at low levels today. There were no Earth directed CMEs.

The average values for solar wind density, velocity and temperature from 10 AM yesterday (17-08-2017) to 10 AM today (18-08-2017) are 12 #/cm^3, 550 km/s and 400000 K, respectively.

Kp index showed a max value of 5 which indicates minor geomagnetic storm activity according to NOAA geomagnetic storm scale. AE index had max values between 500 and 1000 nT today which indicates moderate substorm levels (WDC-Kyoto). These increments of geomagnetic indices are due to the HSS arrival yesterday at 08:00 UT.

ASSA model gives a probability of 64% for C and 19% for M level flares. X level flares are not expected.

ALERTS!!!

  • Electron flux at GOES with energies greater than 2 MeV didn't exceed 1000 particles/(cm2 s sr) and electron flux with energies greater than 0.8 MeV didn't exceed 10^5 particles/(cm2 s sr) over the past 24 hours which indicated that there was no alert for spacecraft surface charging. (iSWA)

  • Proton flux at GOES with energies greater than 10 MeV and 100 MeV didn't reach or exceed flux levels 10 pfu and 1pfu, respectively. That means, there was no Solar Proton Event alert for spacecrafts. (pfu: proton flux unit: #/(cm^2*sec)) (iSWA)

  • Minimum magnetopause standoff distance was 7.91 Re which shows that there were no danger for GEO Satellites (around 6 Re). (iSWA)

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