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Nowcast and Forecast for August 17, 2017


Solar activity (CMEs and flares) was at low levels today. There were no Earth directed CMEs.

Solar activity (CMEs and flares) was at low levels today. There were no Earth directed CMEs.

There was a CME on yesterday related with a filament eruption on NE which can be seen in AIA 193 and 304 around 12:30 UT. It can also be seen in LASCO C2 at 15:36 UT, in LASCO C3 at 17:54 UT in NE and in Stereo A at 16:24 UT in NW. The CME was measured in StereoCat with using only STA images and the following were found: latitude was estimated as 11 degrees (11 N), longitude as -61 degrees (61 E), cone angle as 25 degrees with a velocity of 550 km/s. Its arrival time to 21.5 Rs was estimated as 2017-08-16T23:50Z. (SW DONKI)

The average values for solar wind density, velocity and temperature from 12AM yesterday (16-08-2017) to 12 AM today (17-08-2017) are 12 #/cm^3, 450 km/s and 200000 K, respectively.

Kp index showed a max value of 5 which indicates minor geomagnetic storm activity according to NOAA geomagnetic storm scale. AE index had max values between 1500 and 2000 nT today which indicates strong substorm levels (WDC-Kyoto). These increments of geomagnetic indices are due to the fast solar wind from coronal hole which has arrived today.

ASSA model gives a probability of 69% for C and 19% for M level flares. X level flares are not expected.

ALERTS!!!

  • Electron flux at GOES with energies greater than 2 MeV didn't exceed 1000 particles/(cm2 s sr) and electron flux with energies greater than 0.8 MeV didn't exceed 10^5 particles/(cm2 s sr) over the past 24 hours which indicated that there was no alert for spacecraft surface charging. (iSWA)

  • Proton flux at GOES with energies greater than 10 MeV and 100 MeV didn't reach or exceed flux levels 10 pfu and 1pfu, respectively. That means, there was no Solar Proton Event alert for spacecrafts. (pfu: proton flux unit: #/(cm^2*sec)) (iSWA)

  • Minimum magnetopause standoff distance was 7.19 Re which shows that there were no danger for GEO Satellites (around 6 Re). (iSWA)

Disclaimer: This analysis is a preliminary product and should be interpreted and used accordingly

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