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Nowcast and Forecast for August 16, 2017


Solar activity (CMEs and flares) was at low levels today. There were no Earth directed CMEs observed.

Solar activity (CMEs and flares) was at low levels today. There were no Earth directed CMEs.

There was a CME on yesterday related with the C1.1 class flare which peaked at 12:20 UT from AR 12671. It can be seen in LASCO C2 at 13:48 UT and in LASCO C3 at 15:06 UT in the East limb. The CME was measured in StereoCat and the following were found: latitude was estimated as -3 degrees (3 S), longitude as -61 degrees (61 W), cone angle as 30 degrees with a velocity of 378 km/s. Its arrival time to 21.5 Rs was estimated as 2017-08-15 23:30:43Z.

The average values for solar wind density, velocity and temperature from 10AM yesterday (15-08-2017) to 10 AM today (16-08-2017) are 5 #/cm^3, 370 km/s and 60000 K, respectively which are very close to the long time averaged solar wind properties (ro = 5 #/cm^3, V= 400 km/s , T=40000 K).

Geomagnetic indices also don't point out to any geomagnetic activity.

ASSA model gives a probability of 74% for C, 17% for M and 1% for X class flares.

ALERTS!!!

  • Electron flux at GOES with energies greater than 2 MeV didn't exceed 1000 particles/(cm2 s sr) and electron flux with energies greater than 0.8 MeV didn't exceed 10^5 particles/(cm2 s sr) over the past 24 hours which indicated that there was no alert for spacecraft surface charging. (iSWA)

  • Proton flux at GOES with energies greater than 10 MeV and 100 MeV didn't reach or exceed flux levels 10 pfu and 1pfu, respectively. That means, there was no Solar Proton Event alert for spacecrafts. (pfu: proton flux unit: #/(cm^2*sec)) (iSWA)

  • Minimum magnetopause standoff distance was 10.09 Re which shows that there were no danger for GEO Satellites (around 6 Re). (iSWA)

Disclaimer: This analysis is a preliminary product and should be interpreted and used accordingly

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