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Nowcast and Forecast for August 14, 2017


Solar activity (CMEs and flares) was at low levels today. There were no Earth directed CMEs observed.

Solar activity (CMEs and flares) was at low levels today. There were no Earth directed CMEs observed. There were many solar flares observed on the East limb.

The average values for solar wind density, velocity and temperature are 4.5 #/cm^3, 500 km/s and 350000 K, respectively .

Geomagnetic indices also don't point out to any geomagnetic activity.

ASSA model gives a probability of 6% for C and 1% for M level flares. X level flares are not expected.

ALERTS!!!

  • Electron flux at GOES with energies greater than 2 MeV didn't exceed 1000 particles/(cm2 s sr) and electron flux with energies greater than 0.8 MeV didn't exceed 10^5 particles/(cm2 s sr) over the past 24 hours which indicated that there was no alert for spacecraft surface charging. (iSWA)

  • Proton flux at GOES with energies greater than 10 MeV and 100 MeV didn't reach or exceed flux levels 10 pfu and 1pfu, respectively. That means, there was no Solar Proton Event alert for spacecrafts. (pfu: proton flux unit: #/(cm^2*sec)) (iSWA)

  • Minimum magnetopause standoff distance was 9.06 Re which shows that there were no danger for GEO Satellites (around 6 Re). (iSWA)

Disclaimer: This analysis is a preliminary product and should be interpreted and used accordingly

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