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Nowcast and Forecast for August 4, 2017


Solar activity (CMEs and flares) was at low levels today. Solar wind speed is steadily increasing due to the high speed stream (HSS) originating from the coronal hole on the Sun around the 30 degrees west meridian. IMF Bz is fluctuating between negative and positive values with a magnitude of ~14 nT. HSSs can be effective in creating geomagnetic storms lasting for days.  Geomagnetic indices point out to rising geomagnetic activity which has not been capable of a global scale disturbance, yet. However, a disturbance of minor to moderate level is expected with KP around 5 to 6 due to the HSS.  ASSA model gives a probability of 24% for C and 1% for M level flares. X level flares are not expected.

Solar activity (CMEs and flares) was at low levels today. Solar wind speed is steadily increasing due to the high speed stream (HSS) originating from the coronal hole on the Sun around the 30 degrees west meridian. IMF Bz is fluctuating between negative and positive values with a magnitude of ~14 nT. HSSs can be effective in creating geomagnetic storms lasting for days.

Geomagnetic indices point out to rising geomagnetic activity which has not been capable of a global scale disturbance, yet. However, a disturbance of minor to moderate level is expected with KP around 5 to 6 due to the HSS.

ASSA model gives a probability of 24% for C and 1% for M level flares. X level flares are not expected.

ALERTS!!!

  • Electron flux at GOES with energies greater than 2 MeV didn't exceed 1000 particles/(cm2 s sr) and electron flux with energies greater than 0.8 MeV did't exceed 10^5 particles/(cm2 s sr) over the past 24 hours which indicated that there was no alert for spacecraft surface charging. (iSWA)

  • Proton flux at GOES with energies greater than 10 MeV and 100 MeV didn't reach or exceed flux levels 10 pfu and 1pfu, respectively. That means, there was no Solar Proton Event alert for spacecrafts. (pfu: proton flux unit: #/(cm^2*sec)) (iSWA)

  • Minimum magnetopause standoff distance was 7.25 Re which shows that there were no danger for GEO Satellites (around 6 Re). (iSWA)

Disclaimer: This analysis is a preliminary product and should be interpreted and used accordingly


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