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Nowcast and Forecast for August 3, 2017


Solar activity was at minor levels today. Not much activity is expected for tomorrow.  Solar wind density and velocity are below the average levels. IMF Bz is dominantly northward. Geomagnetic indices also don't point out to any geomagnetic activity.    ASSA model gives a probability of 24% for C and 1% for M level flares. X level flares are not expected.

Solar activity was at minor levels today. Not much activity is expected for tomorrow. Solar wind density and velocity are below the average levels. IMF Bz is dominantly northward. Geomagnetic indices also don't point out to any geomagnetic activity.

ASSA model gives a probability of 24% for C and 1% for M level flares. X level flares are not expected.

ALERTS!!!

  • Electron flux at GOES with energies greater than 2 MeV didn't exceed 1000 particles/(cm2 s sr) and electron flux with energies greater than 0.8 MeV did't exceed 10^5 particles/(cm2 s sr) over the past 24 hours which indicated that there was no alert for spacecraft surface charging. (iSWA)

  • Proton flux at GOES with energies greater than 10 MeV and 100 MeV didn't reach or exceed flux levels 10 pfu and 1pfu, respectively. That means, there was no Solar Proton Event alert for spacecrafts. (pfu: proton flux unit: #/(cm^2*sec)) (iSWA)

  • Minimum magnetopause standoff distance was 11.22 Re which shows that there were no danger for GEO Satellites (around 6 Re). (iSWA)

Disclaimer: This analysis is a preliminary product and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


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